Decision support

Progression simulator

Counter-factual projection: if today's hotspot is left untreated, here's the clinically modeled trajectory toward callus → pre-ulcer → Grade 1 ulcer → infection. Compare against the offloading-insole arm to justify intervention.

Open Marcus's chart

Progression simulator · "do nothing" scenario

What happens if Marcus isn't treated

14-week projection

Modeled from baseline pressure (312 kPa at 1st metatarsal head (L)), published diabetic-foot ulcer onset curves, and the Takata pressure dataset. Hover the chart to walk week by week.

Untreated risk in 14 wks

98/100

Crosses ulcer threshold ~ week 0

With SoleGuard insole

23/100

Custom relief pocket + 80% wear adherence

Δ risk avoided

−75 pts

Approving insole below locks this trajectory in

Clinical milestones if untreated

Week 2 · Callus thickens
risk ≥ 60
Repetitive shear at hotspot — keratin builds up, hiding deeper damage.
Week 5 · Sub-keratotic hemorrhage
risk ≥ 72
Bleed under callus — classic pre-ulcer sign in neuropathic feet.
Week 8 · Grade 1 ulcer breaks skin
risk ≥ 84
Full-thickness skin loss at the metatarsal head. Pain often absent due to neuropathy.
Week 11 · Deep / infected ulcer
risk ≥ 92
Tendon or bone exposure risk. ~20% of these progress to osteomyelitis.
Week 14 · Amputation decision window
risk ≥ 97
~50% of diabetic foot ulcers infect within a month; lower-limb amputation rate climbs sharply past this point.

Intervention window: The next ~5 weeks are the highest-leverage period — offloading before sub-keratotic hemorrhage prevents 85%+ of progressions to Grade 1 ulcer in published cohorts.